Well, as you may have noticed, the HWC weekly stattracker has taken a couple weekends off now. Don't worry, I intend to get that little feature back on track soon enough - given the time that's elapsed, there will hopefully be some interesting trends to muse over by then. For now I've decided to tackle what I feel is another timely issue: the 2009 MLB All-Star voting, and more specifically, how I've gone about putting together my 2009 All Star ballots this year (so far).
I must admit, I don't put too much stock into the "All Star" label anymore when looking to judge a players talent or season performance. Between the fan voting, the player voting and the requirement of each team to have it's a representative on the All-Star roster no matter what, being awarded the label doesn't always necessarily mean that you where one of the league's best players.
That said, it's still a big event for the baseball community (or at least Bud Selig tries hard to keep it that way) and last year's ASG starting lineup wasn't too bad merit-wise (and I don't say that just because three Rangers got in) so flaws or not, lets not go writing the event off completely. It may not be voting for the hall of fame or anything, but as a baseball fan I still take a some degree of pride in at least trying to get it right, so tonight will be the first part of my retrospective on how I've voted thus far, starting with the American League.
Before I dive in, a quick listing of the stats I've been looking at in making my voting determinations is in order: along with the good old fashioned AVG/OBP/SLG trifecta and OPS, I've also started looking at wOBA (weighted On-base Average) as a good overall indicator of a players offensive performance, UZR for defense and to help put the entire picture together, a glance at Fangraphs' value numbers, which will tell us how many wins above replacement (WAR) a guy's been worth. Trust me, it sounds a lot more complicated and brainy than it really is. Especially considering Fangraphs has really cool leaderboards where you can look all those things up by league and position.
First Base
Leaderboard
The AL has a pretty good crop of first basemen worth considering this year, but this decision wound up being fairly easy for me. Kevin Youkilis leads the AL in every offensive category I mentioned above except batting average (and he's second in that), with an AL-leading .468 wOBA. He's third among 1B's in UZR and he leads in WAR a 2.5 (technically Victor Martinez is tied with him on the Fangrapghs leaderboards, but he's listed as a catcher on the ballots).
If you don't want to vote for a Red Sock though, Russel Branyan has turned out to be a better pickup than the Mariners had even fantasized so far and Justin Morneau is having quite a season for the Twins. Both are on Youk's heels in every offensive category, and as a result just 0.2 points behind their Boston counterpart with a 2.3 WAR. Defensively is where they differ however - Morneau has been a butcher in the field, ranking 3 full runs below replacement, and while Branyan is only just slightly below replacement himself, their deficiencies in that department is what makes me go with Youkilis (even though he's #2 on my top 5 most hated Red Sox list).
Second Base
Leaderboard
Welcome to the Ian Kinsler show, folks. Despite his noted road struggles this year, Kinsler's overall numbers still have him pretty much head and shoulders above the second base competition right now. He's got 19 points on Dustin Pedroia in wOBA, and is the only AL 2B slugging over .500 (at .549). He's worth 5.6 runs above replacement at second (third on the defensive leaderboard), and overall he's good for a 2.7 WAR, which not only leads the second basemen but is tied for third among all AL position players. On a side note, looking this up really makes me realize I'd forgotten how good Ian has been this year of late - which is really, really freaking good.
Toronto's Aaron Hill and last years ASG starter Dustin Pedroia are both having extremely good seasons as well - Pedroia's .412 OBP leads AL second-sackers, but other than batting average that's the only kind of edge either of them have on Kinsler.
Shortstop
Leaderboard
As is par for the course, there's probably not much chance of any AL shortstop not named Derek Jeter winning the vote at this position. At least he has a legit case, though, with the second-bast wOBA among AL SS's and a positive UZR for the first time in his career since... well... as far back as UZR goes.
Thanks to Jason Bartlett and Marco Scutaro though, two light hitting defensive wizards who are having shockingly good offensive first halfs however, Jeets has got some serious competition, to say the least. Offensively Bartlett has been rather insane this year, posting a .373/.418/.596 line, good for a .451 wOBA. Crazy stuff from a guy with a .329 career wOBA. Only problem is, he's currently on the DL with an ankle sprain, and though I believe he's due to come off the DL sometime soon, we'll have to see how that affects his numbers once he comes back.
That brings us to Marco Scutaro, who the Rangers will get to see this week in Toronto. Not only has he been crazy good offensively this year himself (.376 wOBA, just two points below Jeter) but he's got the second-best UZR among AL shortstops at 5.1 (second only to Elvis Andrus, by the way). That's what differentiates him from Jeter and Bartlett, who are quite a ways behind with UZR's of 1.5 and 1.2, respectively. In terms of WAR, the defensive angle tied him and Bartlett at 2.7, with Jeter trailing at 2.2.
Bartlett's insane offensive season would get him my vote if he weren't DL'd, but since he is it kind of makes it a crapshoot - and in this crapshoot I'll go with the most well rounded player, and that's Scutaro. And even if he wasn't, well... he's still better than voting for Jeter.
Third Base
Leaderboard
Now for the biggest no-brainer on this half of the ballot. Allow me to introduce Evan Longoria, whom you might remember as the 2008 AL rookie of the year. I don't know if it's possible to shatter your own hype when you've been hyped as one of the very best hitting prospects in the game, but that's pretty much what Longoria has done this year. Might as well get the big stat out of the way first: that would be a 3.2 WAR, which not only leads AL third basemen, but all qualified AL players. He's been good for a .320/.392/.611 line (1.003 OPS), a 424 wOBA, and plus 5.7 runs UZR-wise. You lucky, lucky Tampa bay Rays.
For you Ranger fans who want to tow the party line and vote Michael Young based on his .400 wOBA (which is "just" 24 points behind Longoria) you should know that defensively Young is -7.7 runs below replacement however, which isn't just dead last among third basemen, it's 6th worst in the entire AL. That drags his WAR all the way down to 1.3, 4th among the 3B's. Pesky little Brandon Inge has actually been the second-best AL third sacker thanks to his defense - which is 7.6 runs in the right direction - and a .374 wOBA.
Yeah, I know what you're thinking. Seriously? Brandon Inge has a .374 wOBA?
Catcher
Leaderboard
Well, according to the Fangraphs leaderboard, there's only 3 qualified catchers (Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek and Kurt Suzuki), so if you want to get the whole picture you have to open it up to all catchers period - which means having to skip by some extremely small sample size wonders if you do. Catcher is also the one defensive position you can't really judge statistically (at least to my knowledge) since there's also really no such thing as UZR for catchers and range factors and such don't really mean much in this case.
So having to rely on offensive stats, I'm torn between Victor Martinez (.344/.412/.555 line, .417 wOBA and a 2.5 WAR and 257 PA's) and Joe Mauer (.410/.497/.795, 528 wOBA, 3.1 WAR, but just 149 PA's). Normally I'd lean toward the larger sample size, but since V-Mart has had 117 of his PA's at first base, I think you've gotta go with Mauer's video game-crazy numbers.
Outfield
Leaderboards
Nelson Cruz is the new Josh Hamilton. No, really. I'm serious. In fact, he might be better. Because as of right now, Nelson Cruz is the best outfielder in the American League.
Yeah, I know Jason Bay is kind of having a bat-guano crazy offensive season. So is Adam Jones, the kid the O's stole from the Mariners for Erik Bedard. And, grudgingly enough, Torri Hunter as well. But hey, so is Nelson Cruz. Those four are the top four among AL OF's in wOBA. And unlike the three above him, Nelson Cruz is also the best defensive outfielder in the AL. In fact, forget the outfield, Cruz's 10.3 UZR is the highest of any position player in the AL. Which, actually is a bit of a novelty, considering all four of the other top 5 AL OF's in wOBA (Johnny Damon being #5) are all on the negative side in UZR. Bay and Jones are actually third and fourth to last, in fact.
What that defensive wrinkle means is that Nellie Cruz rocks a 3.0 WAR - second only to Evan Longoria in the AL. And what that means is that if Nelson Cruz does not go to St. Lous, it will be a crime (so vote harder, people!).
Cruz aside however, there's still two slots to fill in the outfield, and plenty of guys to fill it with. Once could reward one of or both of Jason Bay or Adam Jones for basically being the best offensive OF's in the AL and ignore their terrible defense - or you could vote for Carl Crawford and Torri Hunter who are the only other OF's besides Cruz with WAR's above 2.0 (2.2 and 2.1 respectively). Cases could even be made for guys like Ichirio, Johnny Damon, and Shin SooChoo of the Indians.
I think I'll compromise and go with Adam Jones (whose WAR is still 1.8) and Crawford - which, as you may have noticed, means I can avoid voting for the Red Sock and the Angel, while rubbing it in the face of the poor Mariner fans.
Next time I'll run through the choices on the National League half of the ballot - if I have time, maybe I'll even do it midweek so I can get the weekly scoreboard rolling again next weekend.
In the meantime, I'd love to hear how you, the reader are filling out your all-star ballot this year.
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