2010 is the Year-or Not.

Sunday was one gloomy day for DFW sports fans. The Rangers suffered another devastating loss, thus ending their playoff hopes, and the Cowboys lost a thriller in front of 105,000 screaming fans-well, since this is a baseball blog I'll stay away from the Cowboys. Anyway, as far as the Rangers go, Sunday answered our question that had been heating up all season: will the Rangers make it to the postseason? Well, now we know. Last week's collapse seemed almost inevitable, simply because all throughout the season when we thought Texas would collapse, they proved everyone wrong by coming back and staying in contention. They had to fall apart at some point, right? I mean, they're the Texas Rangers. Well, with that being said, it's now time to speculate over the 2010 season, which has been persistently advertised as "the year" by folks down in Texas. There is so much to cover and analyze with regard to next season, so for now, I'm going to discuss something pretty basic: will the Rangers really be better next year?

The first thing that comes to mind is "yes." Whether they go out and get a new arm or not, the Rangers will have considerably more pitching depth than ever before. There will be countless pitchers fighting for the rotation, all of whom are highly touted, young arms that will seemingly just get better as time goes on. Also, by contending through September this year, the Rangers have developed the experience of true competition, which will undoubtedly help them survive in 2010. Plus, players like Chris Davis should rebound nicely from the year before and be able to maintain more consistent production.

But these positive thoughts can only go so far, and they sort dwindle when you look at the big picture. Obviously we can hope that Texas will be there in 2010, but right now, partly because of my recent negativity surrounding this team, I am far from convinced. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered before the Rangers can be considered a legitimate playoff team. First off, let's start with the offense: can Josh Hamilton stay healthy? He's played three seasons in the big leagues, and only one of those has he been able to stay off the DL. And these injuries he's experiencing are more like the ones that land 40 year olds on the shelf. Hamilton is obviously very susceptible to getting hurt, and with all these nagging injuries in 2009, who's to say they won't come back in 2010? Perhaps Hamilton, despite his exceptional defensive abilities, needs to spend more time at DH. Another player who is prone to injuries is Ian Kinsler. If you haven't noticed, he's spent time in the DL in each of his first four seasons. So Ian has two things to prove: one, that he can stay healthy (though a small injury like the one he had in August won't hurt too much) and two, that he can return to his 2008 form offensively. I like the Ian Kinsler that sprays line drives all over the field and hits for average much more that the one that either hits massive popups or massive homeruns. It's as if he started taking lessons from Hank Blalock (but I'm still a big Blalock fan, and I'll be sorry to see him go). Then there's Michael Young. My only concern with Young is that his hamstring injury might carry over into next season. Finally, the Rangers may need to add another bat. Someone who can get on base a lot, maybe a Kevin Youkilis-type player. I say this because as much as I like the Ranger offense, they simply can't afford to go into a deep hitting slump late in the season like they did last week. The Rangers have always been a team that for some reason goes into a deep rut offensively, and then they suddenly come out and score 10-12 runs. Take last night for example. I would much prefer a team that evens the scoring out. In the end, it all comes down to consistency. Look at the Ranger lineup: Michael Young is the only guy hitting over 300. Look at the Angel lineup: nearly everyone is hitting at or around 300. The Angels are the epitome of consistency.

As for the pitching, well, it could either be stellar or catastrophic (and I use this harsh word simply because young pitching is so unpredictable). I'd say Scott Feldman is the real deal. I wasn't convinced after last year. Now, I completely am. But what about Tommy Hunter? He's been one of the best starters for the Rangers this season. But could his success be a fluke? I'm leaning towards no, but we'll have to wait and see. Then there's Neftali Feliz, who almost transcends the definition of 'power.' But, these sort of pitchers sometimes have trouble surviving the hype. Will Feliz fade after his great start? Plus, if he's in the rotation, we have no way of telling how he'll fare. As for the bullpen, I still don't trust Francisco or Wilson, despite the fact that they almost always deliver. I'm pretty happy with the rest of the bullpen, though another lefty needs to be added to replace Guardado. And finally, the biggest mystery coming into 2010 is...Derek Holland. Holland is the sort of pitcher who makes one utterly jubilant when he does well, but also incredibly frustrated when he fails. Of all the pitching on this team, Holland is my greatest concern. Obviously he has great talent, and you have to like his mental approach (for more, read this tremendous article from the Dallas Morning News. Yet, Holland has been awful of late, which does not bode well for his success next year. If he's inconsistent, as most young pitchers are, then we may have to wait until 2011 until we see the "real" Derek Holland. Remember when Felix Hernandez first came up in 2005? Well, it took him several years, but now he's one of the most coveted pitchers in baseball. Based on Holland's lack of consistency, it may take him a while, like Hernandez, to fully blossom.

I have written this from a negative standpoint, but it's the most honest method of looking at the Rangers next year. They are not guaranteed to make the playoffs, as so many seem to be taking for granted. Is there a lot of promise for this team next year? Absolutely. As far as pure talent is concerned, they may have the best club in baseball. But it takes more than just talent to make the playoffs. It takes a winner's mentality, which the Rangers don't quite have yet. Oh yeah, and one other thing: experience. The question is, do the Rangers have enough of it to make it all the way in 2010?

Over?

Today, a talk show host on one of the daily shows on 105.3 the Fan was rambling about the Rangers and their recent tribulations. He finished by saying, "it ain't over till it's over, but it's over." I think that's the mindset that most fans are falling into now, myself included. From my perspective, rationalizing says that the Rangers probably are done, but my inner fan spirit is still hanging on for dear life. The Rangers cannot bend much further without breaking, and, as I said before, they can't keep up these inconsistencies.

It's pretty simple what the Rangers have to do if you look at the big picture. However, for now, while there's still 19 games left, let's focus on just winning the next two games. If the Rangers can beat Oakland tonight and tomorrow, they have a guarantee of gaining ground in either the West of the Wild Card because the Angels and Red Sox are opposing each other now for a three game series. Perfect timing.

I'm banking on the Red Sox winning 2 of 3 simply because the Rangers still have seven games left with LA. We'll see what happens. If the Rangers can't gain ground before Friday, then it's pretty much completely over. The next two games are vital. Go Rangers.

Unreliable Mayor

I'm sitting here patiently, waiting to see if the Rangers will finish their games with the Mariners. My expectations aren't high that they'll continue in this atrocious weather, and if they do, I don't see them winning the game. But my thoughts aren't really focused on the result right now. Rather, I'm thinking about tonight's starter, Kevin Millwood, and how enervated he's looked on the mound of late. I'm tired of watching him go out time after time and allow hit after hit, run after run. Tonight was no exception, as the final line on Kevin was 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, and 2 BB. Still want to call Millwood this team's Ace? I'd say it's time for him to move over and let the ascending Scott Feldman take his place.

Kevin Millwood, who only has two wins since July, is the type of pitcher who makes the fan extremely angry when he underperforms in key games. Maybe it's his veteran presence, or his poise on the mound. He seems like the type of pitcher who should be able to come through every time. And yet, he looks extremely tired and vulnerable these days. He reminds me of one of those grumpy, worn out former ace pitchers who you might find in a movie like "Rookie of the Year." In that movie, which is nothing short of awful, the old former star pitcher grumbles his way through the season. At one point he says in a deep, gruff tone: "I don't do autographs," when a kid asks him for a signature. Now, Millwood isn't quite as flinty as that, but when he responds to his rough outings, his tone is similar, deep, short: "I didn't find my spots. Walked too many guys. I expect myself to do better." So do we, Kevin, but words cannot mend terrible performances. Going out and throwing a gem can. I'm not sure that Kevin Millwood has realized that yet. If you listened to Mike O'Gulnick last week, he did a great impersonation of Millwood, and he too expressed an annoyance with the pitcher's vague answers to his bad starts.

So what might be causing this very untimely collapse? Millwood, who generally performs very well in September, looks like a completely different pitcher. One has to wonder: did those extra innings thrown by Millwood back in April and May affect his arm? It's definitely a possibility. I certainly wouldn't expect Millwood's poor pitching to be a result of pressure, because he's been in playoff situations before. Whatever the problem is, Millwood needs to sort it out. I believe that if he was pitching like Scott Feldman right now, then the Rangers might be tied with the Red Sox. Instead, they're about to be three games back, a deficit that needs to be made up fast, before the season is out. It's up to the pitching, especially Millwood, to make sure that happens.

Hello Win Column, Win #79: Rangers Sweep Series, 10-0

Final Score: Rangers 10, Indians 0
Game Recap

Did anyone else notice that, with this win, we've matched the Rangers' win total from last season?

Game 140: Rangers 10, Indians 0 from Let's Go Tribe

"It took the Texas Rangers less than 24 hours to sweep the Indians . . .

The only upside here is that the Rangers are only 1.5 back of Boston now."

Hello Win Column, Win #78: Rangers Sweep DH 10-5

Final Score: Rangers 10, Indians 5
Game Recap

There wasn't much chatter in the Indian's blogosphere about this game, so we'll have to settle for just posting the FanGraph, which shows how this game was really over a long time before it was really over:

Hello Win Column, Win #77: Rangers Take Game 1 of DH, Series

Final Score: Rangers 11, Indians 9
Game Recap

Game 138: Rangers 11, Indians 9 from Let's Go Tribe

"After the Indians were quickly down 5-1, the offense scored eight more runs, but today the bullpen couldn't keep the Rangers down. Carlos Carrasco again couldn't throw strikes, and had to be pulled after five innings. The right-hander allowed 11 baserunners and two more home runs.

The lineup, meanwhile, solved Tommy Hunter. In his last start against the Indians, Hunter threw 7.2 scoreless innings. Tonight the Indians tagged Hunter for eight hits in 5.1 innings of work. Rangers manager Ron Washington pulled Hunter in the sixth, replacing him with young phenom Neftali Feliz, who in his short career has dominated opposing hitters. But tonight's results seemed to go against the grain, and the Indians plated both of Feliz's inherited runners in the sixth, and scored a run off him in the seventh.

But the Rangers kept scoring runs, and although the Indians tied the game in the sixth, they never relinquished the lead. Marlon Byrd ended Chris Perez's long scoreless streak by blasting a three-run homer in the top of the seventh."

Hello Win Column, Win #76: Manage to Beat Baltimore Only Once, 5-1

Final Score: Rangers 5, Orioles 1
Game Recap

Cognitive dissonance: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles from Camden Chat

"Ahh, who to pull for? I can't actively root against the Orioles—it's just not in my blood—but given that the Rangers are the only team standing between the [Red Sox] and a wildcard berth, I will have no problems, no problems whatsoever, if we get swept by the Rangers.

The Rangers haven't made the postseason in ten years—their last visit was under the great Johnny Oates in 1999 . . .


Rangers (76-58) at Orioles (54-81) from Camden Chat

"Nothing beats the excitement of September baseball, huh?

The Rangers continue in their quest to secure the AL Wild Card, while the Orioles are...what are they doing again? Oh, that's right. They're shutting down young pitchers, they're tinkering with the lineup in ways that don't really make sense, they're playing without one of their best players in Adam Jones, and they are shredding whatever useful semblance of a bullpen they used to have.

There are positive moments to be had the rest of this year. The Orioles can beat the Red Sox in their upcoming series and help deny the Red Sox a playoff berth."

Labor Day musings

For me at least, Labor Day has always been the unofficial end of summer. As a kid I always hated this holiday because it marked the imminent trade of lazy summer days for the drudgery of school (and my dreaded math classes). To this day I still find it dislikeable - only now because it means the baseball season is entering it's home stretch.

In recent years past, that of course meant it was time time to start looking ahead to next season and get a look at the September callups. There wasn't much to immediately look forward to in Ranger-land besides whatever possibilities the winter meetings might offer. That's why, as I sit here waiting on the rain delay in Cleveland, I realize just how big a deal it is for this team to be playing meaningful games this time of year. There's a chance, that for the first time since 1999 this team could be playing beyond the 162nd game of the season.

That chance, , however seems to be a bit of a double edged sword. Thomas just got done talking about the mood surrounding this team, and right now it's definitely a negative one, one that I fear could wind up shrouding the end of this season if the Rangers do indeed miss the playoffs (as is seeming increasingly likely). Personally, that's not how I want to feel about the end of our best season since 2004.

I think it's important to remind ourselves that this isn't it - this isn't the best this team is going to do for another 5 years. It's my belief that there's just too much talent in this organization, both breaking in at the major league level and still in the minors for this team not to be at this point again soon, and remain there for years to come as well. If this is what this team can do this season with a multitude of underperforming and frustratingly inconsistent players (Hamilton, Davis, and Kinsler among the most notable), I think you have to believe this team is capable of better.

Perhaps I'm babbling a bit at this point, but what I'm driving at here is there's 26 scheduled games left in the Rangers season and there's absolutely no reason not enjoy them, no matter the outcome. This time, there's no shame in "maybe next year".

Shifting Moods

I think the Rangers are starting to miss Michael Young. It didn't take long-not that I expected it to. I accepted yesterday's loss partly because it was a close game, but more so because the suddenly decrepit Boston Red Sox fell victim to the White Sox, meaning the Rangers didn't lose any ground in the Wild Card. Going into Sunday, I suspected that the Red Sox would come out with a win, but I fully expected the Rangers to do the same. Jeremy Guthrie, one of the worst starters in baseball, against Derek Holland, who would almost undoubtedly bounce back from his disastrous outing last monday. Instead, Holland looked incredibly vulnerable for the third consecutive start, while Guthrie held the incompetent Ranger lineup in check for seven innings.

To add to the misery is the fact that both LA and Boston won today, dropping the Rangers back even further in the races. I'm far from putting up the flag on the season, but I said a few days ago that the Rangers needed to sweep or take the series from both Baltimore and Cleveland. So far, they're 0 for 1. I don't want to sound like I'm asking too much, but the Rangers need to sweep the Indians. They did it in April, they can do it in September.

It's funny how moods change so often in a pennant race. Just yesterday, before Texas fell to the Orioles 5-4, the Rangers seemed to be unstoppable. They had won four straight, they had Kevin Millwood on the mound, and it looked like a Baltimore sweep wasn't out of the question. Now, just over 24 hours later, the outlook is one of oppressive despair and vexation. And now, if the Rangers go and sweep the Indians, we'll be back to where we were yesterday, feeling very good about the Rangers. But they can't keep doing this. They can't keep shifting the mood. They need to win, win, win. They need to make us feel great, because in truth it's the only way they'll catch Boston or LA. They had a great chance to get within one game of the Red Sox this weekend and they passed it up. If they want to be a playoff team, they can't waste opportunities. Playoff teams take advantage of good situations. Look what the Angels are doing to the Royals. The Rangers are yet to prove that they are worthy of being considered equal or superior to the Angels. Let's hope that changes soon. Very soon, before it's too late.

Hello Win Column, Win #75: Rangers Win Rubber Match over Jays 6-4

Final Score: Rangers 6, Blue Jays 4
Game Recap

Did anyone realize that this win matches our 2007 total?

Scott Richmond and Jays lose to Rangers from Blue Bird Banter

"Scott Richmond did not have a good night. No one really bad inning but he gave up a homers to Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus. 5 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks isn't going to do the job very often . . .

For the second day in a row the Rangers had a star injured, Josh Hamilton left the game with back spasms and will be day to day . . ."

Hello Win Column, Win #74: Rangers Bring Out Brooms for Blue Jays

Final Score: Rangers 5, Blue Jays 2
Game Recap

Game 2 Recap: That wasn't good either from Blue Bird Banter

"Yesterday we scored 18 runs in 1 game, today we struggle for 4 in 2 games. Tough to believe that Brandon McCarthy could hold us to 3 hits in 6.1 innings, but then that's the way we've played the season . . .

Offensively we did nothing. The only guy to have a good game was Joe Inglett who had 2 hits and a walk, giving Aaron Hill the game off at 2B. John McDonald had a double as well. In interest of fairness I'll mention Kevin Millar took 2 walks . . .

Michael Young left the game with a strained hamstring and likely will be missing a few games for the Rangers. I'd rant and rave about Millar playing while Ruiz sits or Millar being on the team while Brian Dopirak is still in Vegas, but I'm too tired to rant. Just mentally add a thousand words whining about it . . . "

Hello Win Column, Win #73: Rangers Take Game 1, 5-2

Final Score: Rangers 5, Blue Jays 2
Game Recap

Game 1 Recap: We Used to be Able to Catch the Ball from Bluebird Banter

"Marc Rzepczynski pitched great but got beat by his defense . . . Offensively we scored on a ground ball with the bases loaded that Michael Young booted . . . Our other run was a Adam Lind homer, number 28 for him. We only got 6 hits, two for Lind . . .

Game two is about to start, Millar is playing, Ruiz is not. Cito, what the hell are you doing?"

Michael Young Injured

That Michael Young will be absent for 2-3 weeeks with a hamstring injury seems like old news almost based on all the attention that local writers and talk show hosts have been giving it throughout the day. And that's a good thing, because the loss of Young is without a doubt the biggest blow the Rangers have suffered this year. Losing Josh Hamilton was painful, but Young is the guy who carries this team, and his injury is magnified about ten times because the Rangers are now entering their most crucial stretch of the season.

As far as replacments go, Ron Washington has said that Omar Vizquel and Esteban German will platoon at third. As for tonight, Chris Davis is playing third and Hank Blalock will take over at first. This is only for this game though, which is further proof that Ron Washington is a mannager who relies heavily on his own instict rather than reason and logic. That's rather unnerving for the fan, but if it means being 16 games above 500, then I'm all for it.

As far as the Vizquel-German platoon goes, my preference is obviously Vizquel. I admit I'm biased, because Vizquel has always stood for what's great about the game. But also, Omar's numbers this year to me warrent significant playing time: 299 AVG and a 348 OBP. Granted, that's only in 155 plate appearances, but based on his career numbers, Vizquel is a guy who consitently gets on base and makes things happens once he's on. Also, though Vizquel admitted he's not completely comfortable at third, I think he's close to impeccable just about anywhere in the infield. Now this is no knock on German, but you have admit Vizquel is the easy favorite.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be completely against the idea of keeping Davis at third and giving Blalock one last shot at first. I think it would mean a lot to Hank seeing as he's come this far with the Rangers and if he's given the chance again I think he might get hot (he hit very well in the last two Septembers). Also, Blalock is in his final year with the Rangers (he's been with them since 2002) and it would be sort of sad to see him leave as a utility man. But, the Rangers have to go with what's best, and right now, it seems like Vizquel is the answer at third base. Mere feelings can't decide if Blalock gets to play again. Statistics decide that, and right now, Omar's are significantly better than Hank's.

Michael Young said that he'd love to be back in time for the series against the Angels. That would be ideal, but hamstring injuries tend to be very nagging, so we just have to wait and see how quickly Young progresses. In the meantime, the Rangers have two series coming up against two very beatable teams, the Orioles and the Indians. The Rangers' tendency to lose to poor teams could hurt them once again. But it's mandatory that they take at least four or five against Baltimore and Cleveland. The Rangers can only lose a handful of games this month, and it would be a disgrace if they did bad against the teams no longer vying for a playoff spot.

Wednesday: Remember This Guy?

Poor Joaquin Benoit. If you remember, the Rangers lost him to a rotator cuff tear in January. He's been a Ranger for so long, yet in the midst of the success of the Rangers this season, it makes you wonder if anyone remembers he's still on the team . . .