Monday: Commentator Query: The Enigmatic CJ Wilson

During Saturday night's victory over the Twins, Dave Barnett (switching to the TV side of the broadcast in the absence of Josh Lewin) said:

"[CJ] Wilson's gotten stronger as the season has progressed."

There are several ways to interpret this statement, and I'm mostly just using Barnett's comment as an excuse to show off CJ's impressive numbers this year, rather than point out a flaw in something he said. Thus, a disclaimer is in order: make no mistake about it, CJ has been absolutely outstanding this season; his 2.90 ERA in 59.0 innings speaks to that.

However, his ERA hasn't exactly improved (on a month to month basis) since his stellar month of May, as this month by month look displays (though his season ERA, until this month, has been steadily decreasing since his forgettable month of April, which may give the illusion that he's been improving his monthly ERAs):

Month -- ERA -- Innings

April -- 6.52 -- 9.2
May -- 0.00 -- 11.0
June -- 2.38 -- 11.1
July -- 2.51 -- 14.1
August -- 3.55 -- 12.2

Perhaps Barnett meant to convey CJ's consistency this year, which is inarguable. He may have also been referring to CJ's dominance of opposing hitters (in other words, since ERA is such a fickle stat for relief pitchers, it may not be as reliable as we had hoped). If this is what Barnett meant, he was correct, as this post-April month by month look at CJ's strikeouts per inning shows:

Month -- strikeouts/inning

May -- .36
June -- 1.24
July -- 1.26
August -- 1.66

Wow. In case you need some reference for that, Nolan Ryan's career strikeouts/inning ratio was 1.06 . . .

Good News-maybe.

In their desperate attempt the squeeze into the playoffs, the Rangers have been battling against two teams: the Red Sox and the Angels. The Rangers are only 2 1/2 games behind Boston for the Wild Card, but I'm still banking on them catching the Angels. So, with that in mind, let's bring in some good news about this formidable foe. One of the most frustrating aspects of the 2009 season has been the Rangers' inability to catch LA since they took over first place back in June. Or, to put it in other words, the Angels' inability to lose when Texas is hot. It seems as if the Angels have been on a winning streak coupled with an occasional loss ever since early July and since then the Rangers have done little to make a serious push at first place. They've been hanging around 3, 4, 5, games behind for a while. Despite their solid play, the Angels have been just a little bit better than Texas. The big question was: Can this team (LA) slow down? Well, it looks like perhaps they might be doing so. Finally. It's only a short stretch of time, but in their last ten games, the Angels are 3-7. It's been a while since we've seen those numbers. Unfortunately the Rangers haven't exactly been playing dynamite ball, going a mediocre 5-5 in that same stretch. That's why they're still 4 games out. But, that 3-7 mark for the Angels may be a sign of what's to come in September, which would then give the Rangers a golden opportunity. Another breath of light is that Texas is 9-3 against the Angels this year, and they still have seven game left against them. Certainly doesn't bode well for LA. On the downside, the Angels just acquired Scott Kazmir, who, despite his calamitous 5.92 ERA this year, has been pitching much better of late.

Hello Win Column, Win #72: Fourteen for Feldman

Scott Feldman is now 14-4. What were the preseason odds on that?

Final Score: Rangers 3, Twins 0
Game Recap

Pavano Good, Feldman Better, Rangers Blank Twins from Twinkie Town

"That was frustrating.

It was an early strike by the Rangers that did all the necessary damage on Saturday night. I'm glad I fell asleep during the fifth inning, because I'm pretty sure my frustration wouldn't have let me sleep . . .

The offense blanked itself last night as much as the Rangers did it to them . . ."

Friday: What Have You Done For Me Lately?

**Nelson Cruz the past 7 days: hitting only .167, but his patience at the plate has made up for it at a .167/.444/.417 clip.

**Chris Davis in the New York series (his first 3 games back): .333/.385/.583

**Josh Hamilton before the All-Star Break: .243/.298/.428; Josh Hamilton after the All Star Break: .304/.350/.405 (still waiting for the power stroke to return . . . )

**Dustin Nippert in the month of August: 4.39 ERA in 26.2 innings; not so bad. Take a closer look: 16 BBs in those 26.2 innings; pretty bad.

Hello Win Column, Win #71: Kinsler, Davis Go Deep in 7-2 Rout of Yanks

Final Score: Rangers 7, Yankees 2
Game Recap

How the other side lives: long ball kills Yanks in 7-2 headscratcher from Pinstripe Alley

"The Yankees lose 2-7 on August 27 on Game 127. Should have seen that one coming.
But it's difficult to predict these types of things when your starter whiffs 12 in 6 and lets up only 2 hits, while the opposing hurler walks 7.

My buddy texted me "Why isn't Texas better? They're [expletive] good. They should be running away with the division." Baseball's a funny game.

And now cue the frantic talks about the Yanks' records against playoffs teams despite our 5-game division lead.

The Yanks aren't used to losing series, and I'm not used to watching them do so. But since Game 1 of this set, they were killed, above all else, by 2-out hits--a stat that overshadowed any pitching implosions or offensive explosions. The Rangers did what the Yanks have had trouble doing all year: hit with 2 outs.

And yet at the same time, they won the Yankee way: by going deep."

Hello Win Column, Win #70: Rangers Survive 9th Inning Scare To Top Yanks, 10-9

Final Score: Rangers 10, Yankees 9
Game Recap

Rally falls short in 10-9 loss from Pinstripe Alley

"Down 10-5 heading into the bottom of the ninth, the Yanks rallied valiantly for four runs, and just when it looked like they would tie the game, poor luck and poor execution doomed them.
Joe Girardi had Nick Swisher (try to) bunt with runners on first and second with no outs . . .

Joba experienced all his trouble with two outs. Texas scored in two innings off him, but each rally miraculously began with two outs and no one on base. He just could not record that third out in the second and fourth, ruining his night."

Hello Win Column, Win #69: Scooter Feldman Salvages Rays Series For Rangers

Final Score: Rangers 4, Rays 0
Game Recap

Rays Offense Falls Totally Flat In Loss To Rangers from D-Rays Bay

"The Rays needed to win this game to help close the gap in the wild card race, instead they were completely shutdown by Scott Feldman and Co. Feldman went seven innings while striking out 11 Ray batters. On the day the Rays would strike out 15 times, two shy of the team record . . . "

Hello Win Column, Win #68: Rangers Crush Twins To Split Series

So, there's been a bit of a break between these HWC posts, but I like doing them, and they are fairly popular, so we're going to start it up again . . . .

Final Score: Rangers 11, Twins 1
Game Recap

We've Seen This Script Before: Twins Lose 11-1 from Twinkie Town

"The Texas Rangers drove another nail in the coffin of the Minnesota Twins 2009 season, beating the Twins 11-1 last night in Arlington . . .

Studs:
1. Marlon Byrd: 2 HR, 4 RBI, Byrd put Texas up for good in the third.
2. Neftali Feliz: Ended the Twins threat in the 6th, allowing only a Redmond single in 1.2 innings.
3. Julio Borbon: 3 for 5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI. Showed some pop for a speedster.

Duds:
1. Bobby Keppel. Three batters, three doubles.
2. Joe Crede. 0 for 3 with the key GIDP in the 6th.
3. Jeff Manship: 5 hits in 1.2 innings. Some of the hits were quite unlucky (grounder that Cabrera could have had, etc.), but he may have been lucky to give up only 2 runs."

Feliz: Starter of Reliever?

The more volatile the Ranger's relief pitchers have grown the greater my anxiety upon their entrance to the mound has become. I no longer have faith in C.J Wilson the way I did earlier in the year, Frank Francisco seems to be a hit or miss, and for the first time, the stalwart in the bullpen, Darren O'Day, seems to have weakened ever so slightly. The decent of the bullpen raises much concern, but one thing is for certain: I hold a steadfast conviction that Neftali Feliz is most trustworthy pitcher in the pen right now. And that raises a major question: will the Rangers consider keeping Feliz as a relief pitcher? Personally, I want to see him start. I want to see if this kid can mow down hitters for an entire game rather than just an inning or two. But going into next year, let's say hypothetically the Ranger rotation has Ben Sheets as the ace, Kevin Millwood, Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, and Derek Holland. And even if the Rangers don't acquire Sheets or someone else, they may still want to see what Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison have to offer. I know the Rangers envision Feliz as a starter, but with so much depth in the rotation already, and with arms like Blake Beavan and Kasey Kiker on the rise (though Beavan has been mediocre to say the least while Kiker has been solid but not brilliant), it's certainly a possibility that the Rangers will keep Feliz in the bullpen, perhaps as the closer, for next year.

In eight games, Feliz has a 0.63 ERA and an astounding 19 strikeouts in 14.1 innings. Almost as impressive is the fact that Feliz has only walked one batter. There's nothing better than a strike throwing machine with a 100 MPH fastball. It also looks as if Feliz' off speed pitches have improved greatly since he was moved to the bullpen in AAA. Now, as a young pitcher, Feliz is liable to make mistakes. He will undoubtedly have a bad outing eventually. But for now, I feel relief rather than angst when he comes in to pitch. I take it for granted that he will issue the shutdown inning when he's called upon. These numbers are the reason we may see Feliz still in the bullpen next year, perhaps as a closer. Frank Francisco is nice to have, but can he really stay healthy for a whole season? And what about C.J Wilson? I know the Rangers see him as a potential closer, but when he's been ain that role he's reminded me of Mitch Williams, which scares the heck out of me. And so, going into 2010, the best choice for the closer role may be Feliz. If the Rangers could keep Francisco and Wilson as setup men, then I think Feliz would definitely solidify the back end of the bullpen.

In the end, what I think will happen is Feliz will be given a chance to start in Spring Training. He'll likely be battling for a spot with Hunter, Harrsion, McCarthy, and maybe Holland. If the Rangers love what they see from Feliz, then I think he starts, if they don't feel impressed, then Feliz goes to the bullpen. But one things for sure: Feliz isn't going back to the minors. His arm is too valuable.

He's baaaaaack...

Well, this is almost as if it where on cue, isn't it? Not 24 hours after John Paul's timely post chronicling his performance in AAA Oklahoma, Chris Davis is apparently "expected" to rejoin the big league club on Tuesday for their 3 game set with the NY Yankees.

He's of course going to replace the increasingly lifeless Hank Blalock, who after an 0-4 Sunday is hitting .199/.213/.342 since the All-Star break and .238/.274/.473 on the season.

As noted by JP in the last entry, Davis has turned his game around at the AAA level since being sent down (after putting up a .202/.256/.415 line in his first 77 games of the year in the majors), hitting .327/.421/.540 with 35 strikeouts in 150 ABs. Perhaps most impressive though are the walk totals he's put up since going down: 28 in 178 total PA's, good for a 13.8% BB rate. That, along with the nearly halved strikeout % (23.3) gives Davis a 0.69 K/BB ratio, the best he's posted at any single stop in his career (sample size aside). The test of translating those improvements to the majors still awaits him, of course, but suffice it to say that Davis has done everything the Rangers could've possibly hoped for in his performance since being demoted. He's probably not going to be in any better position than he is right now to salvage something from the ashes of his disappointing 2009 MLB campaign.

A roster move to make room for him on the 25-man roster will be forthcoming - optioning Doug Mathis to AAA would seem the most logical choice, though that would leave the Rangers with a 6-man bullpen (rather than the 7 they've been accustomed to using most of the season) going into a series with the top team in the MLB in wOBA.

Should they not want to give up that extra pitcher however, it's not entirely inconceivable that the Rangers could either waive or DL Andruw Jones or even Blalock. Davis's presence probably forces those two back into some sort of platoon at DH, And while Blalock starting a game as the designated hitter seems by definition a slightly hilarious prospect at the current juncture, Jones has been pretty worthless himself since the all-star break. He's hitting .184/.326/.368 for the second half and though he's taken grounders there recently, he doesn't provide the security of being a long-term backup at first base in the event of an injury.

Personally, I'd be slightly surprised (though I might prefer it) if either one went anywhere - Blalock due to his contract, Jones because of Rudy Jaramillo's attachment to him - but it's worth pondering.

(A quick footnote to close out the entry here - I will be indeed back on a part-time basis to support JP and Thomas here at HWC, though my posts will likely be more just as infrequent as before.)

Sunday: Battle of AAA First Basemen

Just a quick thought for today . . . .

For all those who were calling for Chris Davis' head early in the season in favor of Justin Smoak, check out their stats at AAA this season (as of Friday morning):

Chris Davis: .327/.421/.540 with 35 strikeouts in 150 ABs
Justin Smoak: .239/.354/.356, 36 with 36 strikeouts in 163 ABs

Smoak will be a great player eventually, but for now I think it's unfounded to suggest that he needs to replace Davis. One thing I think we can all agree on: it's time for Davis to come back and replace Blalock . . . .

Friday: Pudge Then vs. Pudge Now

In their annual publication the year after Pudge left the Rangers in 2002, Baseball Prospectus wrote this quip under Einar Diaz's stats in 2003 (which, confusingly enough, appeared in the 2004 edition):

"It's not too often that a team replaces one of the best catchers in baseball history with one of the worst."

He's without a doubt one of the best catchers to play the game. If you're like me, you didn't really follow Pudge closely in his post-Rangers days. When we reacquired him, I found myself wondering, "How has Pudge been doing since he left?"

Here's a quick summary of some important stats which give a partial answer to the above question (along with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden's performances this season for comparison):

AVG/OBP/SLG:

Pudge with the Rangers (1991-2002): .305/.342/.489
Pudge with everyone else (2002-2009): .291/.328/.442
Pudge the last 2 years (2008-present): .265/.302/.389
Salty this year: .236/.293/.375
Teagarden this year: .194/.264/.364

Average Games Played:

Pudge with the Rangers (1991-2002): 123.25
Pudge with everyone else (2002-2009): 125.86
Pudge the last 2 years (2008-present): 104
Salty this year: 83
Teagarden this year: 39

CS%:

Pudge with the Rangers (1991-2002): 49.8%
Pudge with everyone else (2002-2009): 38.5%
Pudge the last 2 years (2008-present): 32.3%
Salty this year: 24%
Teagarden this year: 41%

Note: What would make this more interesting would be how the all the Rangers catchers from 2003-present have done in his absence. I've scoured the internet, but can't seem to find this data. If anyone knows where I can find it, let me know.

Source: Pudge's baseball-reference page

Wednesday: I'm Back

Well, it's been a hell of a summer. For those who have been checking the page for the past month or so hoping to see new articles . . . lo siento. Because of the tenacity of wedding preparations that took place this summer, I was left with very little time to do much more baseball-wise than listen to the Rangers on the radio (usually while doing things like stuffing invitations, or reserving hotel rooms, or renovating the house). But there are two things we may celebrate: (1) I got married, and (2) Hello Win Column is back.

Since the upcoming semester (my 4th in graduate school) looks to be a busy one, I won't be updating every day like I had been. Instead, I'm going to aim for 3-4 posts per week. If I'm lucky, I will be able to convince my co-writers to join me once again. Because the truth is: Rangers baseball is too exciting right now to not write about (at least for me).

So I apologize to anyone out there who was disappointed with the lack of posts the last couple of weeks (especially to Matt, who harassed me about it constantly). But, as of this moment, Hello Win Column is officially back in business (or maybe just back, since we don't make any money).

Go Rangers!

John Paul