Monday: No More 300?

Last week, Randy Johnson, as we all know, picked up his 300th victory, a milestone that when achieved all but guarantees a spot in the Hall of Fame. How rare is this feat? Extremely rare. Only 24 pitchers in history have achieved it, and only 4 in the last ten years. It’s hard to believe that Cy Young, who holds the record for most career victories, has over two hundred more wins than Randy Johnson does now in the exact same number of seasons, 22. Obviously, the big question doesn’t have anything to do with the past or present, but rather the future. Will there be another pitcher who wins 300 games? I had always taken it for granted that there would be, but when I started hearing sports writers and talk show hosts talk about the slim chances of this happening, I began to rearrange my thoughts and consider the options myself.

The first name that came to my mind was Jake Peavy. I’ve always considered him to be a premiere pitcher. He’s young, 28, and he’s been around for a long time. But then I looked at his career wins, and saw a somewhat substandard total 91. This is already Peavy’s eighth season with San Diego, and though he’s had some seasons with an exceptional ERA, his win-loss record has averaged around the 12-10 mark. He’s only made it over 15 wins once when he picked up 19 back in 2007. So unless Peavy can put it together and start consistently winning 18-20 games a season, he’s pretty much out of the question.

The next name that probably comes to everybody’s mind is Johan Santana, who has been ranked among the game’s best starters the last several years. Though a possible candidate for 300, the chances are more out of Santana’s favor because he really didn’t put his career in order until 2004. Now he’s 30 years old, and he only has 116 wins. Though he’s been plagued by low run support, I think Santana doesn’t have much of a shot, simply because it would be extremely difficult to attain nearly 200 wins in the next ten years, if he’s even playing then. He would basically need to average 20 wins a season. It could happen, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

Since he rose to prominence in 2003, Carlos Zambrano has been the front-runner for 300 win candidacy. Like Peavy, he’s only 28, and he just recently picked up his 100th career victory. But now Zambrano is saying that he’s done after his current contract, so, unless he decides otherwise, he no longer seems to be in favor.

There are other names like Jamie Moyer (46 and still chugging), Brandon Webb, and Roy Oswalt that are worthy of mention, but not serious contenders. Then there are young guns like Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez who could make a run at it.

The bottom line though is that pitchers aren’t trained like they used to be. In the old days starters went deeper into games and pitched more often. Also, now it isn’t such a necessity for a starter to pick up a win. Managers look for the starter to go six innings, keep the team in the game, and let the bullpen do the rest. Though stats and history indicate otherwise, I still hold true to my belief, though it’s diminished in light of recent speculation, that there will be another pitcher who wins 300 games. Of all the great athletes that are coming through the system, I believe that one of them will still seriously contend for that record spot of 300 wins. If that’s not the case, well, I guess pitchers can start looking at 200 wins as the new great plateau. Just kidding.