2010 is the Year-or Not.

Sunday was one gloomy day for DFW sports fans. The Rangers suffered another devastating loss, thus ending their playoff hopes, and the Cowboys lost a thriller in front of 105,000 screaming fans-well, since this is a baseball blog I'll stay away from the Cowboys. Anyway, as far as the Rangers go, Sunday answered our question that had been heating up all season: will the Rangers make it to the postseason? Well, now we know. Last week's collapse seemed almost inevitable, simply because all throughout the season when we thought Texas would collapse, they proved everyone wrong by coming back and staying in contention. They had to fall apart at some point, right? I mean, they're the Texas Rangers. Well, with that being said, it's now time to speculate over the 2010 season, which has been persistently advertised as "the year" by folks down in Texas. There is so much to cover and analyze with regard to next season, so for now, I'm going to discuss something pretty basic: will the Rangers really be better next year?

The first thing that comes to mind is "yes." Whether they go out and get a new arm or not, the Rangers will have considerably more pitching depth than ever before. There will be countless pitchers fighting for the rotation, all of whom are highly touted, young arms that will seemingly just get better as time goes on. Also, by contending through September this year, the Rangers have developed the experience of true competition, which will undoubtedly help them survive in 2010. Plus, players like Chris Davis should rebound nicely from the year before and be able to maintain more consistent production.

But these positive thoughts can only go so far, and they sort dwindle when you look at the big picture. Obviously we can hope that Texas will be there in 2010, but right now, partly because of my recent negativity surrounding this team, I am far from convinced. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered before the Rangers can be considered a legitimate playoff team. First off, let's start with the offense: can Josh Hamilton stay healthy? He's played three seasons in the big leagues, and only one of those has he been able to stay off the DL. And these injuries he's experiencing are more like the ones that land 40 year olds on the shelf. Hamilton is obviously very susceptible to getting hurt, and with all these nagging injuries in 2009, who's to say they won't come back in 2010? Perhaps Hamilton, despite his exceptional defensive abilities, needs to spend more time at DH. Another player who is prone to injuries is Ian Kinsler. If you haven't noticed, he's spent time in the DL in each of his first four seasons. So Ian has two things to prove: one, that he can stay healthy (though a small injury like the one he had in August won't hurt too much) and two, that he can return to his 2008 form offensively. I like the Ian Kinsler that sprays line drives all over the field and hits for average much more that the one that either hits massive popups or massive homeruns. It's as if he started taking lessons from Hank Blalock (but I'm still a big Blalock fan, and I'll be sorry to see him go). Then there's Michael Young. My only concern with Young is that his hamstring injury might carry over into next season. Finally, the Rangers may need to add another bat. Someone who can get on base a lot, maybe a Kevin Youkilis-type player. I say this because as much as I like the Ranger offense, they simply can't afford to go into a deep hitting slump late in the season like they did last week. The Rangers have always been a team that for some reason goes into a deep rut offensively, and then they suddenly come out and score 10-12 runs. Take last night for example. I would much prefer a team that evens the scoring out. In the end, it all comes down to consistency. Look at the Ranger lineup: Michael Young is the only guy hitting over 300. Look at the Angel lineup: nearly everyone is hitting at or around 300. The Angels are the epitome of consistency.

As for the pitching, well, it could either be stellar or catastrophic (and I use this harsh word simply because young pitching is so unpredictable). I'd say Scott Feldman is the real deal. I wasn't convinced after last year. Now, I completely am. But what about Tommy Hunter? He's been one of the best starters for the Rangers this season. But could his success be a fluke? I'm leaning towards no, but we'll have to wait and see. Then there's Neftali Feliz, who almost transcends the definition of 'power.' But, these sort of pitchers sometimes have trouble surviving the hype. Will Feliz fade after his great start? Plus, if he's in the rotation, we have no way of telling how he'll fare. As for the bullpen, I still don't trust Francisco or Wilson, despite the fact that they almost always deliver. I'm pretty happy with the rest of the bullpen, though another lefty needs to be added to replace Guardado. And finally, the biggest mystery coming into 2010 is...Derek Holland. Holland is the sort of pitcher who makes one utterly jubilant when he does well, but also incredibly frustrated when he fails. Of all the pitching on this team, Holland is my greatest concern. Obviously he has great talent, and you have to like his mental approach (for more, read this tremendous article from the Dallas Morning News. Yet, Holland has been awful of late, which does not bode well for his success next year. If he's inconsistent, as most young pitchers are, then we may have to wait until 2011 until we see the "real" Derek Holland. Remember when Felix Hernandez first came up in 2005? Well, it took him several years, but now he's one of the most coveted pitchers in baseball. Based on Holland's lack of consistency, it may take him a while, like Hernandez, to fully blossom.

I have written this from a negative standpoint, but it's the most honest method of looking at the Rangers next year. They are not guaranteed to make the playoffs, as so many seem to be taking for granted. Is there a lot of promise for this team next year? Absolutely. As far as pure talent is concerned, they may have the best club in baseball. But it takes more than just talent to make the playoffs. It takes a winner's mentality, which the Rangers don't quite have yet. Oh yeah, and one other thing: experience. The question is, do the Rangers have enough of it to make it all the way in 2010?