Wednesday: Rangers' Rotation is a Mystery

The rotation for the Rangers is obviously the key component for their success—the same can be said for every other Major League team as well. I don’t remember a great baseball team that didn’t have a great rotation, though that’s not to say that the rotation is the only element that is necessary for producing a winning team. Obviously the bullpen is vital, as well as a solid defense manning the infield and outfield. Also, a potent offense always helps. But the starting pitcher is the one who ultimately decides if the team will win, because even if the offense is down, the starter can always keep the team in the game. For the Rangers, the rotation is as important as ever, but it remains to be seen if this year’s rotation will be any better than last year’s, though in our minds, it certainly seems like it will be. However, our hopes are merely random speculation, seeing as there is almost no way to really tell if the big five will really be any good. Without using any statistics, here's the odd situation of this rotation:

The top of the rotation guys, Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla are in their contract years (though Millwood I believe will be back if he pitches 170 innings) and they’ll likely be trying to put up big numbers to gain notice from other teams. But, more than that, I think these two veterans are looking for some personal redemption after being so mediocre the last few years. They’re out to prove that they can still actually pitch quality games, and I’m not talking about that ludicrous ‘quality start’ stat in which a pitcher just needs to go five innings and allow a maximum of three earned runs. I’m going along the lines of seven and eight inning performances and ERAs below 3. I’m talking about the sort of performance Millwood gave on Monday. Those are the two reasons why we can hope Millwood and Padilla should be much improved in 09, barring injuries of course.

The next two pitchers in the rotation are Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison, two highly touted, young pitchers who are looking to make a big impression here in 2009. McCarthy is an interesting case because injuries have kept him from proving to the Rangers that John Danks wasn’t stolen from them. We can’t fully evaluate McCarthy based on his numbers over the last two seasons since in those two years combined he only pitched 27 games. But we do know that he has occasionally been brilliant, and that the White Sox considered him one of their premiere young pitchers before sending him to Texas. The last few seasons have been extremely exasperating for McCarthy, and he’s more than anything out to prove to the Rangers that they weren’t cheated when dealing for him. Matt Harrison’s story is one ever so familiar: he’s a young pitcher with hardly any Major League experience out to show the world for the first time what he can do in a full season. Expect Harrison to have some rough moments, especially early on as he’ll still be getting used to his first full season in a big league rotation. Harrison has nothing to lose this year, and his situation is likely the best among the five starters since he doesn’t really have to prove anything just yet. Unlike Millwood and Padilla, we aren’t as sure that McCarthy and Harrison will put up solid numbers, since neither of them has shown in the past that they are capable of doing so. However, this will be a very telling year for both of them, as they’ll get their first true chance to shine.

Finally, at the very bottom of the rotation is Kris Benson, a late find for the Rangers back in Spring Training. Benson could potentially be the great discovery of 2009, but at the same time he could be released or moved to the bullpen if his numbers don’t amount to much after a few starts. Benson is also out to prove to himself and the Rangers that he can still pitch, seeing as he hasn’t appeared in a game since 2006. His position reminds me a lot of the 2007 season, when Jamey Wright made the rotation on the spur of the moment. But he didn’t last too long and I think Benson is headed down that same path. My prediction is that either Scott Feldman takes his place, or the Rangers experiment with another young pitcher from the minor leagues.

When examined closely, the Rangers’ starting rotation, the most important piece of a ball club, is quite a mystery. It’s interesting how it’s filled with pitchers who are looking to confirm the belief that they’re capable of being successful big league pitchers (though Millwood and Padilla, both former All Stars, are looking to regain it). Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Harrison, and Benson are all out with one goal in mind, and believe me, they want it more than anyone.

That’s all for me this week, but as the Terminator once said: “I’ll be back.”