It's no secret that Kevin Millwood is off to quite an impressive start this season:
Start #1: 7IP 1ER 5K
Start #2: 7IP 0ER 6K
Start #3: 9 IP 2ER 3K (complete game)
Totals: 23IP 3ER 14K
His season ERA after these three starts is 1.17.
It got me thinking, "When was the last time Millwood pitched this well to start off a season?" The answer was more recent that I realized: it was last year. Look at his first three starts from 2008:
Start #1: 6IP 0ER 4K
Start #2: 8IP 2ER 5K (complete game)
Start #3: 7IP 1ER 2K
Totals: 21IP 3ER 11K
His season ERA after these three starts was 1.29.
We all know what happened after those three starts, however:
April 2008: 3.86 ERA
May 2008: 7.45 ERA
June 2008: 6.10 ERA
July 2008: 6.56 ERA
August 2008: 2.76 ERA
September 2008: 6.10 ERA
Additionally, his BABIP so far in 2009 is .204, way below the league average of .300. Considering his BABIP over the last two seasons has been .348 and .366, he's either "due" for a streak like this, or it is going to return to the .300 mark quite soon.
Would I love it if Millwood kept on pitching like this? Of course. Is there a good chance that he will? No. Here's to hoping he can.
Showing posts with label Kevin Millwood. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kevin Millwood. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Wednesday: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) measures the opponent's batting average on all batted balls that the defense manages (in other words, foul balls that are caught for outs and everything fair except for homeruns, ground rule doubles, etc). It is often used as a measure of the strength of the defense behind the pitcher, and how high or low it is can be used to predict how a pitcher might perform in the future. The league average is generally floats within a few points of .300.
It can also be used as a measure of a team's defense over the course of the season: the Rangers as a team posted a .322 BABIP in 2008, worst in the majors. In contrast, the defense-conscious Tampa Bay Rays grinded out a .285 BABIP, best in the majors. Think of how many runs that saves (or adds).
While sifting through the Rangers team BABIP statistics today, everyone's looked about as expected except for those of Kevin Millwood and Eddie Guardado:
Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290
I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.
Kevin Millwood: 2008 BABIP: .366 Career BABIP: .308
Are you kidding? .366? The only pitcher on the 2008 Rangers that was worse was Luis Mendoza (with a sparkling .385). So, when the ball was put in play against Millwood last season it was like Ichiro was at the plate. Believe it or not, this isn't much worse than his .348 BABIP in 2007. And it's not as if this is a career trend: his career BABIP is fairly average at .308. Unsurprisingly, the only two seasons that Millwood has posted an ERA of higher than 5.00 have been the last two seasons. Millwood has suffered from bad luck and bad defense long enough -- it is time for a change. Look for Millwood's lofty .366 BABIP to regress towards his career average of .308. Along with our (supposedly) shored up defense, this should go along way towards an improved Kevin Millwood in 2009.
It can also be used as a measure of a team's defense over the course of the season: the Rangers as a team posted a .322 BABIP in 2008, worst in the majors. In contrast, the defense-conscious Tampa Bay Rays grinded out a .285 BABIP, best in the majors. Think of how many runs that saves (or adds).
While sifting through the Rangers team BABIP statistics today, everyone's looked about as expected except for those of Kevin Millwood and Eddie Guardado:
Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290
I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.
Kevin Millwood: 2008 BABIP: .366 Career BABIP: .308
Are you kidding? .366? The only pitcher on the 2008 Rangers that was worse was Luis Mendoza (with a sparkling .385). So, when the ball was put in play against Millwood last season it was like Ichiro was at the plate. Believe it or not, this isn't much worse than his .348 BABIP in 2007. And it's not as if this is a career trend: his career BABIP is fairly average at .308. Unsurprisingly, the only two seasons that Millwood has posted an ERA of higher than 5.00 have been the last two seasons. Millwood has suffered from bad luck and bad defense long enough -- it is time for a change. Look for Millwood's lofty .366 BABIP to regress towards his career average of .308. Along with our (supposedly) shored up defense, this should go along way towards an improved Kevin Millwood in 2009.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Around the Horn: Tuesday (Afternoon)
We already knew that Eddie Guardado was going to skip out on playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. Yesterday, TR Sullivan posted that Luis Mendoza will not play for Mexico in the Classic either. Too bad for Mexico, they could have used someone who posted an 8.67 ERA and a 3-8 record last year in the majors. Also too bad for Team USA.
Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd will be introduced to new roles: Blalock as the DH, Byrd as the self proclaimed "I don't know -- fifth outfielder?". Baseball Time in Arlington revisits exercising Blalock's club option, and TR Sullivan thinks that Byrd's knee surgery may be more of an issue than previously let on. Kason Gabbard will also try out new digs in the bullpen, as the starting rotation is already set to be Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, McCarthy, Harrison. I imagine we will have Jason Jennings sighting in the rotation at the first hint of the need for a sixth starter to step in.
Michael Young is sure that "Andruw is going to have a monster year." To be honest, I'm not going to be impressed with anything less.
Frankie Francisco is heading into camp as the top choice the closer's role, from which he will receive considerable competition from CJ Wilson. I like this move, Francisco was dominant when took on that role last year. I was never comfortable with Wilson as the closer anyways; he is much more powerful as a setup/LOOGY type.
Spring Training Updates: TR Sullivan, Jeff Wilson
Last, but not least, one of the highlights of my day yesterday was reading Jamey Newberg's article on why the Rangers are going to be better in 2009. I have to admit that I wasn't too terribly optimistic about our chances for this season, but this article changed my mind.
Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd will be introduced to new roles: Blalock as the DH, Byrd as the self proclaimed "I don't know -- fifth outfielder?". Baseball Time in Arlington revisits exercising Blalock's club option, and TR Sullivan thinks that Byrd's knee surgery may be more of an issue than previously let on. Kason Gabbard will also try out new digs in the bullpen, as the starting rotation is already set to be Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, McCarthy, Harrison. I imagine we will have Jason Jennings sighting in the rotation at the first hint of the need for a sixth starter to step in.
Michael Young is sure that "Andruw is going to have a monster year." To be honest, I'm not going to be impressed with anything less.
Frankie Francisco is heading into camp as the top choice the closer's role, from which he will receive considerable competition from CJ Wilson. I like this move, Francisco was dominant when took on that role last year. I was never comfortable with Wilson as the closer anyways; he is much more powerful as a setup/LOOGY type.
Spring Training Updates: TR Sullivan, Jeff Wilson
Last, but not least, one of the highlights of my day yesterday was reading Jamey Newberg's article on why the Rangers are going to be better in 2009. I have to admit that I wasn't too terribly optimistic about our chances for this season, but this article changed my mind.
Thursday, February 05, 2009
Around the Horn: Thursday
If you haven't heard by now, the Rangers have all but passed on Ben Sheets, who is likely to require flexor tendon surgery. The surgery, depending on who you talk to, could keep Sheets out for the enitre first half or for the entire season. Considering that John Hart is still on our staff, I'm surprised we didn't try to sign Sheets to 5 years and $65 million. Is anyone else looking forward to another season with Millwood as our ace? Richard Durrett gives his projections for the starting rotation given this latest development: Millwood, Padilla, Harrison, McCarthy, and Feldman.
The Rangers are also working towards installing LED technology throughout the Ballpark, most notably the left field scoreboard. I have to admit it looks pretty snazzy (see below). I was always a fan, however, of the old-fashioned manual scoreboard. I'm not sure whether this is an actual or projected image, but you can't argue with its appearance:
The Rangers are also working towards installing LED technology throughout the Ballpark, most notably the left field scoreboard. I have to admit it looks pretty snazzy (see below). I was always a fan, however, of the old-fashioned manual scoreboard. I'm not sure whether this is an actual or projected image, but you can't argue with its appearance:
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