It's time for another Commentator Query, a piece I do whenever I hear something questionable said on a baseball broadcast. You can read my last Commentator Query on a comment made about Kevin Youkilis during the World Baseball Classic broadcast on ESPN here.
The commentator in question is Steve Phillips from a comment he made during ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball broadcast of the White Sox - Rangers game. He stated that (slightly paraphrasing) "only one team since 2000 that has led the league in home runs has made the playoffs," his implication being that teams who hit a lot of home runs are less likely to make the playoffs.
Let's break down this argument:
1) First of all, the statement is slightly inaccurate. There have been 2 teams since 2000 that have led the league in homeruns that have made the playoffs: the 2008 White Sox and the 2004 Yankees.
2) Regardless of the truth of Phillips' claim, his argument alone is not enough evidence to assert his claim that home run hitting teams are less likely to make the playoffs. Why? There are 30 positions on the "most home runs" list. The (theoretical) probability that any one of those positions makes the playoffs is slim, whether it's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 15th. So the fact that only 2 teams who have hit the most home runs in all of baseball have made the playoffs is not at all surprising. For instance, the fourth place team on the home run list has made the playoffs 3 times since 2000. Does it make sense to assert that coming in fourth in home runs makes a team less likely to make the playoffs? Of course not, even though it is a statement logically equivalent to the statement made by Phillips. Needless to say, this does nothing to support his claim.
3) Now let's check Phillips' original claim: teams who hit a lot of home runs are less likely to make the playoffs. Instead of looking at each rank in the home runs list, we divide the rankings into thirds:
Since 2000, 35 teams in the Top 10 in home runs have made the playoffs.
Since 2000, 28 teams in the Middle 10 in home runs have made the playoffs.
Since 2000, 9 teams in the Lower 10 in home runs have made the playoffs.
It appears that there is some (though not strong) correlation between hitting a lot of home runs and making the playoffs. Regardless of strength of correlation, there is certainly no evidence to suggest that hitting a lot of home runs lessens a team's chances of making the playoffs.
4) Disclaimer: I realize that commentators have to talk for 3-4 hours about baseball, and (as many of us often do in conversation) find themselves speaking without thinking in depth about what they have said. Most of the time it works just fine, but occasionally they will make an assertion (such as this one) that requires more research. I imagine the argument that Steve Phillips meant to make was that offensively lopsided teams (such as our Texas Rangers) are less likely to make the playoffs, i.e. teams with monster offenses and no pitching are less likely to make the playoffs. As we Rangers fans know, this is much more likely to be true (but that's a study I'll save for another day).
(source: http://www.fangraphs.com/)
Monday, May 04, 2009
Monday Movie: Operetta de Droperetta
I'm not really sure where this video came from. Despite its aggravating song, it does remind us of the importance of communication on the field.
Hello Win Column, Win #12: Rangers Win On Sunday Night Baseball
Great game on national TV. I only wish the commentators would have talked about something other than the Rangers lopsidedness and hitter-friendly ballpark.
Game box score, recap
Sox Lose 5-1 (Comments Section) from South Side Sox
Comment #1: "Another highlight: Joe Morgan takes credit for telling Rickey Henderson to start hitting homers, start swinging at the first pitch…"
Comment #2: "Every time they showed Nolan Ryan, I couldn't help but be reminded of [see picture below].
"
Game box score, recap
Sox Lose 5-1 (Comments Section) from South Side Sox
Comment #1: "Another highlight: Joe Morgan takes credit for telling Rickey Henderson to start hitting homers, start swinging at the first pitch…"
Comment #2: "Every time they showed Nolan Ryan, I couldn't help but be reminded of [see picture below].
"
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Monday: An April to sort of remember.
As I write, I wonder: which month is the most important in a baseball season? The truth of the matter is, is that they all are, because (assuming that the team is in contention) a win on the second day of the season can be just as important as a win on the second to last day of the season. With that said, it becomes evident that the Texas Rangers’ first month of the season contained wins and losses that may end up being of vital importance come September. We could say: “Man, I’m sure glad they won that game,” or: “If we’d just gotten one more run in that game…” The same thing can be said for hitters battling out a key stat in September. Remember a few years ago when Todd Helton and Albert Pujols were neck and neck in the batting race in September. Pujols ended up beating Helton by one point. Being a big Todd Helton fan, I was thinking why he couldn’t have just had one more hit in one of those at bats back in April or May or June? For a player, one more hit, for a team, just one more win. The bottom line is this: The games are important all season long, not just in September. I don’t want to put too much emphasis on the early competition, but if the Rangers are playing meaningful baseball in August and September, then their decent April can’t be ignored. Now I know they ended up a game below 500, but just look at where they were last year and feel glad. Though it’s already May, it’s still early enough in the month to put together a quick review of the opening weeks of the Texas Rangers’ season.
The two key hitters were…Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. Though Kinsler faded toward the end of April, he still finished the month among the league leaders in nearly every offensive category. Also, his defense was nearly impeccable. Kinsler has always seemed to hit a lot of homeruns early on (remember his outrageous start to the 2007 season?) and this year was no different. Kinsler has a beautiful uppercut swing, and though he’s a speedy leadoff hitter, he has the necessary tools to hit the ball out of the park on a consistent basis. No, I don’t think Ian will be a guy who averages 45 long balls a season, but I do think, as he continues to develop as a player, he’ll be able to hit maybe 30 to 32 homeruns. He definitely has the power, and his stroke is somewhat reminiscent to Indian’s leadoff hitter Grady Sizemore, who reached 30 homeruns for the first time last season. But the power numbers aside, Ian’s April was good in nearly every other way, from his incessant streak of doubles to his speed on the base paths. I was considering putting Marlon Byrd in the place of Young (though I like David Murphy, I have to admit that Byrd was a life saver for the Rangers during Murphy’s struggles) but then I remembered those game winning homeruns Young hit, and I simply couldn’t leave him out. Like Kinsler, Young seems to have found his power stroke early on. I’m hoping that he’ll be able to get back to the 20-25 homerun range like he did in 04 and 05 when he hit 22 and 24 homers respectively. Young still believes that he hasn’t had in his best season. Though 2005 would be pretty hard to even duplicate, I wouldn’t be surprised of he is able to at least come reasonably close to those numbers this year.
The two key pitchers were…Kevin Millwood and Frankie Francisco. Due to the Rangers’ dismal pitching in April, this choice wasn’t too hard. Millwood pitched at least seven innings in each of his starts, and made it over 100 pitches in all of them. Though the less pitches Kevin throws the better, seeing him stay in the game even when he’s up over the 100 pitch mark just feels sort of satisfying. I was slightly cynical about Frank Francisco going into the season as the team’s closer. Well, whatever doubts and suspicions I had of him have been laid to rest. Francisco was lights out in April. No he was more than that. It’s difficult to find the words of praise for a pitcher who has an ERA of 0. Now the only hope is that both Millwood and Francisco can pitch like this for the rest of the season (well they don’t have to be quite as good all the time) and that the rest of the pitching staff will follow suite.
So, April is gone, and overall I was very pleased with it, despite a patch that made me nearly tear the team to pieces in a post a few weeks back. We had a lot of questions going into this year, and many of them have been answered. Would Elvis Andrus survive? Would Michael Young be able to handle third base? Would Francisco be able to close games? Yes, yes, and yes. The one player people who assumed would be great and turned out to be quite the opposite was Josh Hamilton. Josh did not fare too well, hitting just 242 with 2 homeruns in 18 games before being put on the disabled list. Also, David Murphy surprisingly got off to an abominable 0 for 23 start, but since then has been regaining his stroke. No, the pitching hasn’t been there, but it is slowly showing signs of improvement, especially with Derek Holland out to help in the bullpen.
My overall assessment of the Rangers' April on a 1 to 10 scale would be 5 1/2 for their sheer talent that is just a little rusty around the edges. Once that rust is gone though, I think we’ll have a pretty special team here in Texas.
The two key hitters were…Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. Though Kinsler faded toward the end of April, he still finished the month among the league leaders in nearly every offensive category. Also, his defense was nearly impeccable. Kinsler has always seemed to hit a lot of homeruns early on (remember his outrageous start to the 2007 season?) and this year was no different. Kinsler has a beautiful uppercut swing, and though he’s a speedy leadoff hitter, he has the necessary tools to hit the ball out of the park on a consistent basis. No, I don’t think Ian will be a guy who averages 45 long balls a season, but I do think, as he continues to develop as a player, he’ll be able to hit maybe 30 to 32 homeruns. He definitely has the power, and his stroke is somewhat reminiscent to Indian’s leadoff hitter Grady Sizemore, who reached 30 homeruns for the first time last season. But the power numbers aside, Ian’s April was good in nearly every other way, from his incessant streak of doubles to his speed on the base paths. I was considering putting Marlon Byrd in the place of Young (though I like David Murphy, I have to admit that Byrd was a life saver for the Rangers during Murphy’s struggles) but then I remembered those game winning homeruns Young hit, and I simply couldn’t leave him out. Like Kinsler, Young seems to have found his power stroke early on. I’m hoping that he’ll be able to get back to the 20-25 homerun range like he did in 04 and 05 when he hit 22 and 24 homers respectively. Young still believes that he hasn’t had in his best season. Though 2005 would be pretty hard to even duplicate, I wouldn’t be surprised of he is able to at least come reasonably close to those numbers this year.
The two key pitchers were…Kevin Millwood and Frankie Francisco. Due to the Rangers’ dismal pitching in April, this choice wasn’t too hard. Millwood pitched at least seven innings in each of his starts, and made it over 100 pitches in all of them. Though the less pitches Kevin throws the better, seeing him stay in the game even when he’s up over the 100 pitch mark just feels sort of satisfying. I was slightly cynical about Frank Francisco going into the season as the team’s closer. Well, whatever doubts and suspicions I had of him have been laid to rest. Francisco was lights out in April. No he was more than that. It’s difficult to find the words of praise for a pitcher who has an ERA of 0. Now the only hope is that both Millwood and Francisco can pitch like this for the rest of the season (well they don’t have to be quite as good all the time) and that the rest of the pitching staff will follow suite.
So, April is gone, and overall I was very pleased with it, despite a patch that made me nearly tear the team to pieces in a post a few weeks back. We had a lot of questions going into this year, and many of them have been answered. Would Elvis Andrus survive? Would Michael Young be able to handle third base? Would Francisco be able to close games? Yes, yes, and yes. The one player people who assumed would be great and turned out to be quite the opposite was Josh Hamilton. Josh did not fare too well, hitting just 242 with 2 homeruns in 18 games before being put on the disabled list. Also, David Murphy surprisingly got off to an abominable 0 for 23 start, but since then has been regaining his stroke. No, the pitching hasn’t been there, but it is slowly showing signs of improvement, especially with Derek Holland out to help in the bullpen.
My overall assessment of the Rangers' April on a 1 to 10 scale would be 5 1/2 for their sheer talent that is just a little rusty around the edges. Once that rust is gone though, I think we’ll have a pretty special team here in Texas.
Rangers weekly scoreboard: 4/27 to 5/2
24 games into the 2008 season, the Rangers sat dead last in the AL West at 8 and 16. Although they had just seen David Murphy deliver a dramatic walkoff win in the 10th inning against the Twins to snap a 7-game losing streak - a turning point that would see the Rangers go 71-67 from the next day on - their hole had already been dug thanks to one of the worst starts in franchise history.
My estimable cowriter Thomas has already pointed out in his thoughtful missive above on the April of 2009, but that is the very thing the Rangers have managed to avoid repeating so far. For all the flaws this team might have right now (such as their third-to-lowest in the majors walk rate or their fourth-highest bullpen ERA) they're still sitting at 12-12 for the first time since 2006.
Monday: Rangers 6, Orioles 4
As poster "Telegraph" put it on Lone Star Ball's gameday thread, Matt Harrison's start on Monday "was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle".
Early on it looked like more of the same from Harrison, who had come into the game having served up up 26 hits, 11 walks and 15 earned runs in his first three starts of the season. Through the first two innings, the Orioles tagged Harrison for 4 runs on 6 hits and a walk. But then, in between the second and the third... something happened. Matt got angry. Or rather, Matt figured out he'd been rushing his delivery in the first two innings. As a result, he was able to slow his delivery down, while maintaining the new tempo he and pitching coach Mike Maddux had worked on in between starts.
The ensuing result allowed Matt to proceed to retire the next 14 batters in a row. He allowed only one more hit before leaving after 7 innings, flashing almost ace-quality stuff - he even revved his usually-mediocre fastball up to 96 a few times. Stunning, jaw dropping, awe-inspiring - describe it however you want, but Matt's turnaround between the second and third innings was as complete and dramatic as you'll ever see. Whether or not this is the new shape of things to come from Harrison or a flash in the pan remains to be seen - but one thing's for sure, Matt earned himself a respite from any thoughts of his demotion on Monday.
Tuesday: Rangers 5, A's 4
Sometimes it's good to know bad luck isn't exclusively limited to the Rangers. That said, you almost had to feel sorry for the A's on Tuesday night, as they saw four players leave the field with injuries and committed two errors that lead to three unearned runs. Almost.
Perhaps the most critical of the A's misfortunes that night was when top prospect Brett Anderson (who had stumped the Ranger offense after allowing a single run in the first) developed a blister on his pitching hand and was forced to leave the game in the 6th. The Rangers would go on to score 3 runs (one charged to Anderson and all unearned as the inning had started with an error by shortstop Orlando Cabrera) off A's reliever Andrew Bailey that half inning, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia dumping a 2-run single into left to give the Rangers a 4-3 edge.
The A's did tie it in the 7th when Ryan Sweeny jacked a solo homer off Kevin Millwood. Millwood had perhaps his least effective start of the year so far, giving up 4 runs (just 2 earned however, thanks to two Texas errors) on 10 hits and 2 walks over the first 7 innings. Millwood still soldiered on through the 8th however, throwing 121 pitches by the time his night was over - the most he's thrown in a single game since July 31st, 2002 when he was with Atlanta. In fact, Millwood has now thrown at least 111 pitches in every one of his starts this year. Not that I particularly care about Millwood's long-term well being, but you have to kind of wonder at what point that kind of a workload is going to come back to donkey-kick his effectiveness for at least start or two.
Getting back to the game, Nelson Cruz knocked in the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 8th after Hank Blalock reached on another Oakland error. That timely hit would put Millwood in line for the win and allowing Frankie Francisco to slam the door for his 6th save of the year. With a 1-2-3 9th, Frankie might've been the sharpest part of a sloppy game that sported a combined 4 errors and 5 unearned runs - the kind of game the Rangers usually lose, actually.
Wednesday would be a rainout. The game was rescheduled for May 29th, meaning everyone in the rotation got pushed back a day. Good news for Kevin Millwood, I'm sure.
Thursday: A's 4, Rangers 2
One of the biggest problems right now for the Rangers is their inconsistent offense, and the splitting of the abbreviated series against Oakland was a perfect illustration of it. Tuesday's win may have been the fruits of taking advantage of opportunity... but Thursday again illustrated the Rangers frustrating inability to do so on a consistent basis.
Twice the Ranger offense loaded the bases against Oakland's Dallas Braden... and twice they came up exasperatingly short. In the fourth it was Chris Davis striking out with 2 on and 1 out and Elvis Andrus striking out with the bases loaded and 2 out. It only got worse in the 5th: after a single, a double, a popout and an intentional walk, Hank Blalock and Nelson Cruz went down on only three pitches apiece - Balock on a pop to second and Cruz on a three-pitch strikeout - to strand the sacs full. The very next two innings the A's would get to Vicente Padilla to score three of their four runs - two on sac flys and one coming on Eddie Guardado's bases loaded four-pitch walk. All the Rangers would eventually muster where solo homers off Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz by Blalock and Andruw Jones as they fell 4-2.
As pleased as you have to be with this teams overall results so far, these are the kind of days we need to see less of going forward.
Friday: White Sox 4, Rangers 3
That feeling of frustration from Thursday would carry over into everyone's TGIF as well. Scott Feldman continued to make the case as to why Kris Benson is a waste of a roster spot... well, to a point anyway. Feldman was lights out for the first 5 innings, allowing just one hit (a bloop single by Carlos Quentin in the fourth that Marlon Byrd just barely missed getting to). Ian Kinsler, who lead off the game with a solo blast had tacked on a sack fly in the third, followed by an Andruw Jones double to give "The Swan" a 3-0 advantage. Things looked to be on cruise control, even two batters into the 6th inning which started with a groundout and a flyout. That was when the game hit an ice patch and proceeded spin out of control.
Chris Getz and Josh Fields both lined 2-out singles, after which Feldman uncorked a wild pitch to send them down to second and third. After Feldman proceeded to walk Carlos Quentin, manager Ron Washington decided to play the percentages with the still-imposing Jim Thome coming up and the fireballing Derek Holland in the bullpen. Feldman, only at 77 pitches was lifted to set up the showdown of young and old power lefties. As it turned out it was a short showdown. After throwing a mid-90's fastball right by Thome to start the at-bat, Holland left his second offering up in the zone - from which it went flying off Thome's bat to the wall in right-center, scoring all three runners. The game was tied, and Feldman's sparkling first 5 innings where erased.
A lot of people rode Washington pretty hard for his decision to removed Feldman in the aftermath of Thome's game tying gapper, but for what it's worth I have say that I do find the decision defensible. And this comes from a noted member of the fire-Ron bandwagon. As I've noted previously here at HWC, Feldman has a reputation for supplying mid-game mayhem - a 967 OPS against in the 6th inning as a starter last year, and a 1.271 OPS against from the 7th and beyond (versus an OPS against of about 740 over the first 5 frames). Then there's Thome's 765 career OPS versus left-handed pitching (although that number is actually a 1.069 in just 9 PA's this year) and the the fact that Derek Holland, age and experience aside, is probably the best left-hander in the bullpen. Add all that up, and the move actually makes a certain amount of sense. Was it micro-managing? Perhaps. But in a close game, I have to say I understand what Ron was trying to do.
Holland did get out of the inning after walking another batter, but he would go on to allow a go-ahead RBI triple in the 7th and wind up taking his first major league loss. The Ranger offense had a chance to tie the game after Michael Young doubled with one out in the 8th - but ultimately failed as Andruw Jones and Hank Blalock both found themselves retired on one pitch - though Jones at least hit the ball deep enough for Young to tag and move to third. Blalock on the other hand grounded weakly to third in what might've been the most pathetic "at bat" (if you can call hacking aimlessly at the first pitch an at-bat) by a #5 hitter in a late and close situation I've ever seen.
Saturday: Rangers 9, White Sox 6
Not to worry though, things got better on Saturday. For the most part. Aside from the four rain delays and the two innings that Luis Mendoza and Eddie Guardado pitched, this one was pretty darned good.
Brandon McCarthy came roaring back after two lackluster starts (I gues it helps when the umpire isn't choking your strike zone to death) to turn in 5 sharp innings against his former club. The Sox put one on the scoreboard early in the second with a sac fly, but that was all they'd get against B-Mac, who allowed just three hits and walked no one.
The Ranger offense meanwhile blasted away at Jose Contreras to make up for their struggles in the previous two days: Hank Blalock blasted a three-run homer in the third, after which the Rangers uncorked four doubles during a 6-run fourth. It was after that that the tarp came out onto the field for the first time, where it stayed for 22 minutes before McCarthy went back out to retire the side in order in the top of the 5th, making it an official ballgame. That spurt of action was immediately followed by another, longer rain delay of an hour and 10 minutes that killed any chances McCarthy might've had of continuing.
Rather than calling the game however, the umpires decided to plod forward and play resumed with Luis Mendoza on the mound for the 6th. Mendoza, who hadn't worked since April 19th, looked like... well, like the Luis Mendoza that was the worst pitcher in all of baseball by VORP in 2008. He allowed a single, hit Jermaine Dye in the hand (he would leave the game), walked Jim Thome and then gave up a grand slam to AJ Pierzynski - all with 2 outs. Rust probably had something to do with it this time around, but for now anyway, Mendoza's status as the punchline of the Rangers pitching staff is still solidy cemented. Punchline or no though, he's still supposedly our long reliever... which is why I'm not sure why Eddie Guardado was immediately brought out of the bullpen for the 7th. Mendoza may have looked like his wild four-A 2008 self, but Guardado looked more like a batting practice machine, giving up 3 hits (2 doubles) and another run before Darren O'Day was quickly summoned to get Texas out of the inning. Though the damage was limited, I'm still not really sure why you take out your struggling long reliever for your struggling LOOGY in the 7th inning of a rain delayed game... that to me made a lot less sense than taking Scott Feldman out of the ballgame the previous day.
The Rangers survived though, with Frankie Francisco eventually nailing down his 7th save with another 1-2-3 9th... Frankie has now given up just 2 hits in his last 5 outings, and just 5 hits and 1 walk in 11 outings overall... good for a 0.514 WHIP. Yowza.
Sunday: Rangers 5, White Sox 1
Ex-pitching prospects are like ex-girlfriends for Ranger fans. Their memory is usually seared with the pain of what could've been, and viewed in 20/20 hindsight that seems highlight all the past mistakes. That's why showing one up on national television might be one of the sweetest victories of the year so far. John Danks has now made three returns to Texas, but it still seems like a big deal even three years removed from the 2006 trade that sent him to Chicago - and after last night, he's now 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA against his former team.
Perhaps most notably though, Matt Harrison proved his turnaround in Baltimore wasn't a fluke with 5 more scoreless innings against the White Sox last night. He didn't hit 96 on any radar guns this time and his efficiency might've left a tad to be desired (100 pitches crept up awfully fast) but he now has a 10 inning scoreless streak, and has gone 11 innings since surrendering his last walk with this latest 6-hit, three strikeout effort.
The offense didn't put together any big multi-run innings against Danks, instead opting for a steady 10 hit attack that saw them score single runs off of him in every inning but the third. Elvis Andrus went 2-3 with a double batting second for the first time ever in the big leagues, while Ian Kinsler jacked a leadoff home run (part of a 2-hit, 2 RBI night) and Nelson Cruz put together a 3-hit evening. Jason Jennings gave up the only Chicago run of the night on a sac fly in the 7th, but Darren O'Day and CJ Wilson would close things out with scoreless frames in the 8th and 9th. In short, it was a nothing short of a picture-perfect Ranger victory - coming, no less in front of ESPN's primetime audience. Hard to top that if you're looking for something to slap the "best game of the season so far" label on.
Stat (or in this case player) of the week:
He hasn't really made headlines yet (except for wearing Kason Gabbard's jersey in his debut) but Darren O'Day is fast becoming the best bullpen pickup the Rangers have made in 2009 (certainly better than the Turnbows, Donnellys and Guardado's of the offseason). He has yet to allow a run this year, going back to his four appearances of the year with the Mets before they put him on waivers. His first three apperances for Texas where all a third of an inning or less, but his last three - which all came just this weekend against the Sox - have seen him strike out 4 while giving up just 2 hits in 3.2 innings. Small sample size warnings abound (heck, they're everywhere at this point in the season), but O'Day looks like he could be a key tonic for an ailing bullpen if he can keep this up.
My estimable cowriter Thomas has already pointed out in his thoughtful missive above on the April of 2009, but that is the very thing the Rangers have managed to avoid repeating so far. For all the flaws this team might have right now (such as their third-to-lowest in the majors walk rate or their fourth-highest bullpen ERA) they're still sitting at 12-12 for the first time since 2006.
Monday: Rangers 6, Orioles 4
As poster "Telegraph" put it on Lone Star Ball's gameday thread, Matt Harrison's start on Monday "was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle".
Early on it looked like more of the same from Harrison, who had come into the game having served up up 26 hits, 11 walks and 15 earned runs in his first three starts of the season. Through the first two innings, the Orioles tagged Harrison for 4 runs on 6 hits and a walk. But then, in between the second and the third... something happened. Matt got angry. Or rather, Matt figured out he'd been rushing his delivery in the first two innings. As a result, he was able to slow his delivery down, while maintaining the new tempo he and pitching coach Mike Maddux had worked on in between starts.
The ensuing result allowed Matt to proceed to retire the next 14 batters in a row. He allowed only one more hit before leaving after 7 innings, flashing almost ace-quality stuff - he even revved his usually-mediocre fastball up to 96 a few times. Stunning, jaw dropping, awe-inspiring - describe it however you want, but Matt's turnaround between the second and third innings was as complete and dramatic as you'll ever see. Whether or not this is the new shape of things to come from Harrison or a flash in the pan remains to be seen - but one thing's for sure, Matt earned himself a respite from any thoughts of his demotion on Monday.
Tuesday: Rangers 5, A's 4
Sometimes it's good to know bad luck isn't exclusively limited to the Rangers. That said, you almost had to feel sorry for the A's on Tuesday night, as they saw four players leave the field with injuries and committed two errors that lead to three unearned runs. Almost.
Perhaps the most critical of the A's misfortunes that night was when top prospect Brett Anderson (who had stumped the Ranger offense after allowing a single run in the first) developed a blister on his pitching hand and was forced to leave the game in the 6th. The Rangers would go on to score 3 runs (one charged to Anderson and all unearned as the inning had started with an error by shortstop Orlando Cabrera) off A's reliever Andrew Bailey that half inning, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia dumping a 2-run single into left to give the Rangers a 4-3 edge.
The A's did tie it in the 7th when Ryan Sweeny jacked a solo homer off Kevin Millwood. Millwood had perhaps his least effective start of the year so far, giving up 4 runs (just 2 earned however, thanks to two Texas errors) on 10 hits and 2 walks over the first 7 innings. Millwood still soldiered on through the 8th however, throwing 121 pitches by the time his night was over - the most he's thrown in a single game since July 31st, 2002 when he was with Atlanta. In fact, Millwood has now thrown at least 111 pitches in every one of his starts this year. Not that I particularly care about Millwood's long-term well being, but you have to kind of wonder at what point that kind of a workload is going to come back to donkey-kick his effectiveness for at least start or two.
Getting back to the game, Nelson Cruz knocked in the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 8th after Hank Blalock reached on another Oakland error. That timely hit would put Millwood in line for the win and allowing Frankie Francisco to slam the door for his 6th save of the year. With a 1-2-3 9th, Frankie might've been the sharpest part of a sloppy game that sported a combined 4 errors and 5 unearned runs - the kind of game the Rangers usually lose, actually.
Wednesday would be a rainout. The game was rescheduled for May 29th, meaning everyone in the rotation got pushed back a day. Good news for Kevin Millwood, I'm sure.
Thursday: A's 4, Rangers 2
One of the biggest problems right now for the Rangers is their inconsistent offense, and the splitting of the abbreviated series against Oakland was a perfect illustration of it. Tuesday's win may have been the fruits of taking advantage of opportunity... but Thursday again illustrated the Rangers frustrating inability to do so on a consistent basis.
Twice the Ranger offense loaded the bases against Oakland's Dallas Braden... and twice they came up exasperatingly short. In the fourth it was Chris Davis striking out with 2 on and 1 out and Elvis Andrus striking out with the bases loaded and 2 out. It only got worse in the 5th: after a single, a double, a popout and an intentional walk, Hank Blalock and Nelson Cruz went down on only three pitches apiece - Balock on a pop to second and Cruz on a three-pitch strikeout - to strand the sacs full. The very next two innings the A's would get to Vicente Padilla to score three of their four runs - two on sac flys and one coming on Eddie Guardado's bases loaded four-pitch walk. All the Rangers would eventually muster where solo homers off Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz by Blalock and Andruw Jones as they fell 4-2.
As pleased as you have to be with this teams overall results so far, these are the kind of days we need to see less of going forward.
Friday: White Sox 4, Rangers 3
That feeling of frustration from Thursday would carry over into everyone's TGIF as well. Scott Feldman continued to make the case as to why Kris Benson is a waste of a roster spot... well, to a point anyway. Feldman was lights out for the first 5 innings, allowing just one hit (a bloop single by Carlos Quentin in the fourth that Marlon Byrd just barely missed getting to). Ian Kinsler, who lead off the game with a solo blast had tacked on a sack fly in the third, followed by an Andruw Jones double to give "The Swan" a 3-0 advantage. Things looked to be on cruise control, even two batters into the 6th inning which started with a groundout and a flyout. That was when the game hit an ice patch and proceeded spin out of control.
Chris Getz and Josh Fields both lined 2-out singles, after which Feldman uncorked a wild pitch to send them down to second and third. After Feldman proceeded to walk Carlos Quentin, manager Ron Washington decided to play the percentages with the still-imposing Jim Thome coming up and the fireballing Derek Holland in the bullpen. Feldman, only at 77 pitches was lifted to set up the showdown of young and old power lefties. As it turned out it was a short showdown. After throwing a mid-90's fastball right by Thome to start the at-bat, Holland left his second offering up in the zone - from which it went flying off Thome's bat to the wall in right-center, scoring all three runners. The game was tied, and Feldman's sparkling first 5 innings where erased.
A lot of people rode Washington pretty hard for his decision to removed Feldman in the aftermath of Thome's game tying gapper, but for what it's worth I have say that I do find the decision defensible. And this comes from a noted member of the fire-Ron bandwagon. As I've noted previously here at HWC, Feldman has a reputation for supplying mid-game mayhem - a 967 OPS against in the 6th inning as a starter last year, and a 1.271 OPS against from the 7th and beyond (versus an OPS against of about 740 over the first 5 frames). Then there's Thome's 765 career OPS versus left-handed pitching (although that number is actually a 1.069 in just 9 PA's this year) and the the fact that Derek Holland, age and experience aside, is probably the best left-hander in the bullpen. Add all that up, and the move actually makes a certain amount of sense. Was it micro-managing? Perhaps. But in a close game, I have to say I understand what Ron was trying to do.
Holland did get out of the inning after walking another batter, but he would go on to allow a go-ahead RBI triple in the 7th and wind up taking his first major league loss. The Ranger offense had a chance to tie the game after Michael Young doubled with one out in the 8th - but ultimately failed as Andruw Jones and Hank Blalock both found themselves retired on one pitch - though Jones at least hit the ball deep enough for Young to tag and move to third. Blalock on the other hand grounded weakly to third in what might've been the most pathetic "at bat" (if you can call hacking aimlessly at the first pitch an at-bat) by a #5 hitter in a late and close situation I've ever seen.
Saturday: Rangers 9, White Sox 6
Not to worry though, things got better on Saturday. For the most part. Aside from the four rain delays and the two innings that Luis Mendoza and Eddie Guardado pitched, this one was pretty darned good.
Brandon McCarthy came roaring back after two lackluster starts (I gues it helps when the umpire isn't choking your strike zone to death) to turn in 5 sharp innings against his former club. The Sox put one on the scoreboard early in the second with a sac fly, but that was all they'd get against B-Mac, who allowed just three hits and walked no one.
The Ranger offense meanwhile blasted away at Jose Contreras to make up for their struggles in the previous two days: Hank Blalock blasted a three-run homer in the third, after which the Rangers uncorked four doubles during a 6-run fourth. It was after that that the tarp came out onto the field for the first time, where it stayed for 22 minutes before McCarthy went back out to retire the side in order in the top of the 5th, making it an official ballgame. That spurt of action was immediately followed by another, longer rain delay of an hour and 10 minutes that killed any chances McCarthy might've had of continuing.
Rather than calling the game however, the umpires decided to plod forward and play resumed with Luis Mendoza on the mound for the 6th. Mendoza, who hadn't worked since April 19th, looked like... well, like the Luis Mendoza that was the worst pitcher in all of baseball by VORP in 2008. He allowed a single, hit Jermaine Dye in the hand (he would leave the game), walked Jim Thome and then gave up a grand slam to AJ Pierzynski - all with 2 outs. Rust probably had something to do with it this time around, but for now anyway, Mendoza's status as the punchline of the Rangers pitching staff is still solidy cemented. Punchline or no though, he's still supposedly our long reliever... which is why I'm not sure why Eddie Guardado was immediately brought out of the bullpen for the 7th. Mendoza may have looked like his wild four-A 2008 self, but Guardado looked more like a batting practice machine, giving up 3 hits (2 doubles) and another run before Darren O'Day was quickly summoned to get Texas out of the inning. Though the damage was limited, I'm still not really sure why you take out your struggling long reliever for your struggling LOOGY in the 7th inning of a rain delayed game... that to me made a lot less sense than taking Scott Feldman out of the ballgame the previous day.
The Rangers survived though, with Frankie Francisco eventually nailing down his 7th save with another 1-2-3 9th... Frankie has now given up just 2 hits in his last 5 outings, and just 5 hits and 1 walk in 11 outings overall... good for a 0.514 WHIP. Yowza.
Sunday: Rangers 5, White Sox 1
Ex-pitching prospects are like ex-girlfriends for Ranger fans. Their memory is usually seared with the pain of what could've been, and viewed in 20/20 hindsight that seems highlight all the past mistakes. That's why showing one up on national television might be one of the sweetest victories of the year so far. John Danks has now made three returns to Texas, but it still seems like a big deal even three years removed from the 2006 trade that sent him to Chicago - and after last night, he's now 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA against his former team.
Perhaps most notably though, Matt Harrison proved his turnaround in Baltimore wasn't a fluke with 5 more scoreless innings against the White Sox last night. He didn't hit 96 on any radar guns this time and his efficiency might've left a tad to be desired (100 pitches crept up awfully fast) but he now has a 10 inning scoreless streak, and has gone 11 innings since surrendering his last walk with this latest 6-hit, three strikeout effort.
The offense didn't put together any big multi-run innings against Danks, instead opting for a steady 10 hit attack that saw them score single runs off of him in every inning but the third. Elvis Andrus went 2-3 with a double batting second for the first time ever in the big leagues, while Ian Kinsler jacked a leadoff home run (part of a 2-hit, 2 RBI night) and Nelson Cruz put together a 3-hit evening. Jason Jennings gave up the only Chicago run of the night on a sac fly in the 7th, but Darren O'Day and CJ Wilson would close things out with scoreless frames in the 8th and 9th. In short, it was a nothing short of a picture-perfect Ranger victory - coming, no less in front of ESPN's primetime audience. Hard to top that if you're looking for something to slap the "best game of the season so far" label on.
Stat (or in this case player) of the week:
He hasn't really made headlines yet (except for wearing Kason Gabbard's jersey in his debut) but Darren O'Day is fast becoming the best bullpen pickup the Rangers have made in 2009 (certainly better than the Turnbows, Donnellys and Guardado's of the offseason). He has yet to allow a run this year, going back to his four appearances of the year with the Mets before they put him on waivers. His first three apperances for Texas where all a third of an inning or less, but his last three - which all came just this weekend against the Sox - have seen him strike out 4 while giving up just 2 hits in 3.2 innings. Small sample size warnings abound (heck, they're everywhere at this point in the season), but O'Day looks like he could be a key tonic for an ailing bullpen if he can keep this up.
Hello Win Column, Win #11: Rangers Overcome Rain Delays to Defeat Sox 9-6
Thought for a second there the game was going to get called before it was official . . .
Game boxscore, recap
Didn't find much chatter from White Sox blogs about this game, so we're going to have to go with the boring old ESPN recap . . . fortunately, there are some quotes from the always uplifting Ozzie Guillen.
Blalock drives in four runs as Rangers finish off White Sox after delays from ESPN
"White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said, 'We never quit, that's the good thing about today. That was an ugly game.'
. . .
'Early in the game, the weather was better than our pitching,' Guillen said."
Game boxscore, recap
Didn't find much chatter from White Sox blogs about this game, so we're going to have to go with the boring old ESPN recap . . . fortunately, there are some quotes from the always uplifting Ozzie Guillen.
Blalock drives in four runs as Rangers finish off White Sox after delays from ESPN
"White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said, 'We never quit, that's the good thing about today. That was an ugly game.'
. . .
'Early in the game, the weather was better than our pitching,' Guillen said."
Friday, May 01, 2009
Friday Foto: Extricated Eddie
This season hasn't gone quite as well as Eddie Guardado and the Rangers hoped it would, allowing 5 ER in 4 2/3 IP. Eddie's struggles this season were something that I predicted a couple of weeks ago here at HWC in a post about Batting Average on Balls in Play:
*****************************************************
Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290
I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.
*****************************************************
Hopefully this is just an aberration, but it seems more likely that Everyday Eddie's arm has finally had it (he's allowed 11 ER in just 12 IP since being traded to the Twins last year).
Apparently the frustration just got to him, as he was ejected from yesterday's game after Ron Washington pulled him for walking in a run with the bases loaded:
Even still, you have to love Eddie Guardado. He's a class-act, evidenced by his summary of the whole ejection process:
"There is nobody to blame but me. Even if one of the pitches should have been a strike . . . It’s nobody’s fault but mine for not throwing the ball over the plate."
*****************************************************
Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290
I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.
*****************************************************
Hopefully this is just an aberration, but it seems more likely that Everyday Eddie's arm has finally had it (he's allowed 11 ER in just 12 IP since being traded to the Twins last year).
Apparently the frustration just got to him, as he was ejected from yesterday's game after Ron Washington pulled him for walking in a run with the bases loaded:
Even still, you have to love Eddie Guardado. He's a class-act, evidenced by his summary of the whole ejection process:
"There is nobody to blame but me. Even if one of the pitches should have been a strike . . . It’s nobody’s fault but mine for not throwing the ball over the plate."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
